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The Gotham Gazette.com reports: The version of the American Recovery and Reinvestment Plan unveiled on Jan. 15 by House Democrats is breathtaking in its scope and cost. Intended to retain and create 3.7 million jobs over the next two years, the $825 billion package of federal government investments includes dozens of spending measures ranging from $200 billion in fiscal relief to help state and local governments, to $6 billion to extend broadband to rural areas, a 21st century version of Depression-era rural electrification. Two thirds of the total value consists of spending, with one third for tax cuts.
Negotiated with President Barack Obama's transition team, the plan - a.k.a. Stimulus II or ARRP - is an important first step to halt the downward economic spiral triggered by last fall's financial meltdown. As large as it is, though-5 percent of gross domestic product-it is not sufficient to create a sustained recovery. Two other steps are essential. First, more dramatic action is needed to put the brakes on the collapsing housing market. Second, making a recovery sustainable will require a set of policies to lift wages and bolster the middle class. Without these two complementary steps, ARRP might provide temporary relief for our economic illness but not a cure.
Helping the States
Whatever its limitations as a long-term solution, ARRP will provide much-welcome short-term budget relief for New York and other states (45 states face budget gaps). The plan will increase the federal share of Medicaid spending and provide billions in education aid to states and school districts. Both of these measures will help to moderate the severe budget cuts proposed by Gov. David Paterson. New York State should receive upward of $10 billion - and possibly as much as $15 billion - over two years -- funds that will help close the state's budget gaps. Such federal relief will help states maintain their spending and prevent spending cuts or tax increases, both of which would have intensified the downward economic spiral.
Help for a Teetering Economy
A year ago, Congress and the Bush administration agreed to a $150 billion stimulus package that consisted largely of tax rebates. Most economists now agree that last year's stimulus was not up to the task because tax cuts provide less "economic bang for the buck" than most other forms of stimulus. Economic forecaster Mark Zandi, a former advisor to presidential candidate John McCain, estimates that every dollar in tax cuts generates only $1.01 in economic activity, much lower than the spending impact of increasing unemployment compensation ($1.63), state fiscal relief ($1.38) or spending on infrastructure ($1.59). Also, since the tax rebate checks were sent out in May and June, when gasoline prices were skyrocketing, many recipients spent the money to cover their gas costs.
The magnitude of a proposed second stimulus has mounted steadily since last September's financial market meltdown and the ensuing sharp collapse in the consumer spending that accounts for 70 percent of demand in the economy. The spending collapse was compounded by a credit market freeze as Wall Street firms and banks confronted a mountain of bad debts created by high-risk lending and unregulated gambling. The crash of the housing and stock markets destroyed literally trillions in home equity and retirement savings held by millions of middle class households. Along with steadily mounting job losses, this caused households to sharply reduce spending. The collapse of consumer spending is thought to have pulled GDP down by as much as 5 percent during the fourth quarter of 2008.
It is no exaggeration to say that this is the worst economy since the Great Depression. The 2.6 million jobs lost in 2008 were more than in any year since 1945. Overall unemployment could be 9 percent by the end of the year and 11 percent in 2010 in the absence of the recovery plan, according to economist Zandi. Already, unemployment among adult black men is 13.4 percent. Housing prices have fallen 25 percent on average. There were 2.25 million home mortgage foreclosures last year, and one out of every six homeowners owes more on their mortgage than their house is worth.
What Stimulus II Would Do
The proposed American Recovery and Reinvestment Plan is a 21st century version of a government-led recovery and investment program, combining some of the best elements of the Depression-era Works Progress Administration, the Eisenhower era commitment to build the Interstate Highway System, the Apollo Project, and the Great Society. The plan includes spending that will not only provide some short-term stimulus but will increase the long-term productive capacity or efficiency of the economy.
One of the biggest components is $52 billion for various "green jobs" programs from weatherizing public buildings (see related story) and homes to reduce energy demand, to developing a "smart" electric power grid that is both more reliable and better able to transmit clean, renewable energy.
The package would also create jobs by spending $67 billion for infrastructure. Because of the urgent need to boost jobs as quickly as possible, it emphasizes "shovel ready" projects, including mass transit systems, highways, bridges, airports, national parks, water and sewer systems, flood control, and environmental cleanup. The Metropolitan Transit Authority will be able to use some of these monies to fund some of the construction projects and equipment needs in its capital budget. Governor David Paterson submitted an extensive list of 1,922 "ready-to-go" projects to the Obama transition team.
This second stimulus package provides $12 billion to support forward-looking research and development investments that could be particularly important in the future, including biomedical, climate change and alternative energy research, and funds to modernize and expand government and university research facilities.
The ARRP includes $5 billion for job training and employment services, including $1.2 billion to create 1 million summer jobs for youth. It offers additional -- and substantial funds -- for worker training and education as part of the education, healthcare, and science and technology initiatives. There is $5 billion for early childhood development, including additional slots in subsidized childcare and Head Start.
A particularly critical part of ARRP is aid to the unemployed. The program includes $36 billion to extend and modestly increase unemployment benefits, and incentives to encourage states to expand unemployment insurance coverage for low-wage and part-time workers. An additional $30 billion would subsidize health coverage for unemployed workers and provide 100 percent federal funding (i.e., dropping the requirement for a state match) for two years for Medicaid-eligible workers who become unemployed.
Nearly $30 billion would go to increase food stamps, low-income heating assistance, assistance provided under federal Supplemental Security Income, aid for the homeless and Temporary Assistance for Needy Families block grants. A total of more than $11 billion would fund repair and modernization of public housing, help communities build and rehabilitate low-income housing using green technologies, and enable communities to purchase and rehabilitate foreclosed and vacant properties. More HERE
